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Systems · Baseline
The market's own pick in every race. The yardstick every other system has to beat.
This rule depends on the starting price, which is only settled at the off. The record is exact, but following it live means acting on the betting just before the race.
Following this blindly lost 9.2p of every £1 staked.
The same 13,985 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: -433.0 pts, -3.1% return on stakes.
No drag from: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, repeat slow starts, eye-catcher last time. Too few selections to judge: failed comeback after a year off. Last 12 months only.
Warning signs known before the race, measured on this system's own selections: one that hurts one system can be harmless, or part of the edge, in another. “v market” is winners against what the prices implied. A signal is listed above when selections carrying it scored at least 0.1 lower on 25 or more bets.
No negative12,827 bets · 33.9% won · 1.06 v market · -11.6% at SP · -2.5% at Betfair SP
Flagged1,215 bets · 31.6% won · 1.00 v market · -18.0% at SP · -9.9% at Betfair SP
Slow start last time
Missed the break on its last run. The market treats it as bad luck; it is more often a habit.
With it507 bets · 32.1% won · 1.02 v market · -14.7% at SP · -4.4% at Betfair SP
Without13,535 bets · 33.8% won · 1.05 v market · -12.0% at SP · -3.0% at Betfair SP
Repeat jumping errors
A jumping mistake noted in two or more of its last three runs. One mistake is forgivable; a horse that keeps making them is overbet.
With it409 bets · 33.0% won · 1.03 v market · -13.1% at SP · -5.9% at Betfair SP
Without13,633 bets · 33.7% won · 1.05 v market · -12.1% at SP · -3.0% at Betfair SP
Hard front-end race on soft ground
Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.
With it316 bets · 28.5% won · 0.89 v market · -31.6% at SP · -26.1% at Betfair SP
Without13,726 bets · 33.8% won · 1.05 v market · -11.7% at SP · -2.6% at Betfair SP
Failed comeback after a year off
Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.
With it4 bets · 25.0% won · 0.94 v market · -40.6% at SP · -39.7% at Betfair SP
Without14,038 bets · 33.7% won · 1.05 v market · -12.1% at SP · -3.1% at Betfair SP
Repeat slow startscontextual
Missed the break in two or more of its last three runs.
With it125 bets · 29.6% won · 1.07 v market · -13.5% at SP · -1.8% at Betfair SP
Without13,917 bets · 33.8% won · 1.05 v market · -12.1% at SP · -3.1% at Betfair SP
Eye-catcher last timecontextual
Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.
With it1,677 bets · 32.9% won · 1.04 v market · -13.8% at SP · -5.0% at Betfair SP
Without12,365 bets · 33.8% won · 1.05 v market · -11.9% at SP · -2.8% at Betfair SP
| 2020 | 7,731 | 32.5% | -631.49 | -8.2% |
| 2021 | 14,308 | 33.3% | -1037.25 | -7.2% |
| 2022 | 13,947 | 33.8% | -1218.75 | -8.7% |
| 2023 | 13,623 | 32.9% | -1339.57 | -9.8% |
| 2024 | 13,336 | 33.4% | -1141.03 | -8.6% |
| 2025 | 13,387 | 34.0% | -1382.59 | -10.3% |
| 2026 | 11,107 | 33.7% | -1294.58 | -11.7% |
| Bumper | 2,765 | 37.8% | -235.48 | -8.5% |
| Chase | 11,840 | 33.7% | -923.79 | -7.8% |
| Flat | 53,349 | 32.1% | -5153.69 | -9.7% |
| Hurdle | 19,485 | 36.2% | -1732.31 | -8.9% |