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Systems · Gary
A horse that has shown it can win, let in with one of the lightest weights in the race.
Following this blindly lost 21.0p of every £1 staked.
The same 9,068 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +56.5 pts, 0.6% return on stakes.
No drag from: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, repeat slow starts, eye-catcher last time. Too few selections to judge: failed comeback after a year off. Last 12 months only.
Warning signs known before the race, measured on this system's own selections: one that hurts one system can be harmless, or part of the edge, in another. “v market” is winners against what the prices implied. A signal is listed above when selections carrying it scored at least 0.1 lower on 25 or more bets.
No negative8,146 bets · 10.5% won · 1.01 v market · -17.9% at SP · 2.6% at Betfair SP
Flagged966 bets · 9.6% won · 0.92 v market · -32.2% at SP · -16.3% at Betfair SP
Slow start last time
Missed the break on its last run. The market treats it as bad luck; it is more often a habit.
With it434 bets · 7.8% won · 0.98 v market · -27.7% at SP · -7.8% at Betfair SP
Without8,678 bets · 10.6% won · 1.00 v market · -19.0% at SP · 1.0% at Betfair SP
Repeat jumping errors
A jumping mistake noted in two or more of its last three runs. One mistake is forgivable; a horse that keeps making them is overbet.
With it293 bets · 13.3% won · 0.91 v market · -32.0% at SP · -20.0% at Betfair SP
Without8,819 bets · 10.3% won · 1.00 v market · -19.0% at SP · 1.3% at Betfair SP
Hard front-end race on soft ground
Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.
With it247 bets · 8.5% won · 0.86 v market · -34.7% at SP · -20.8% at Betfair SP
Without8,865 bets · 10.5% won · 1.00 v market · -19.0% at SP · 1.2% at Betfair SP
Failed comeback after a year off
Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.
With it10 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP
Without9,102 bets · 10.4% won · 1.00 v market · -19.3% at SP · 0.7% at Betfair SP
Repeat slow startscontextual
Missed the break in two or more of its last three runs.
With it166 bets · 8.4% won · 1.09 v market · -9.2% at SP · 18.4% at Betfair SP
Without8,946 bets · 10.5% won · 1.00 v market · -19.6% at SP · 0.3% at Betfair SP
Eye-catcher last timecontextual
Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.
With it788 bets · 13.6% won · 1.11 v market · -6.8% at SP · 12.7% at Betfair SP
Without8,324 bets · 10.1% won · 0.99 v market · -20.6% at SP · -0.5% at Betfair SP
| 2020 | 350 | 17.7% | -79.30 | -22.7% |
| 2021 | 3,634 | 13.0% | -901.38 | -24.8% |
| 2022 | 6,577 | 12.1% | -1351.19 | -20.5% |
| 2023 | 8,064 | 10.7% | -1766.14 | -21.9% |
| 2024 | 8,740 | 10.0% | -1869.58 | -21.4% |
| 2025 | 9,011 | 10.7% | -1689.68 | -18.8% |
| 2026 | 7,233 | 10.5% | -1482.61 | -20.5% |
| Chase | 8,299 | 15.7% | -990.36 | -11.9% |
| Flat | 28,619 | 9.4% | -6970.25 | -24.4% |
| Hurdle | 6,691 | 12.1% | -1179.26 | -17.6% |