Top weights for in-form handicap hurdle trainers

The rules

1. The race is a handicap hurdle.
2. The horse carries top weight, or joint top weight.
3. Its trainer has won with at least 20% of 30 or more handicap hurdle runners before today.

Record, 2020-09-24 to 2026-10-12

Following this blindly made 7.6p on every £1 staked. A method that only breaks even would show a profit this good about 31 times in 100, so this could well be luck.

Bets

403

91 winners

Strike rate

22.6%

average SP 7.5/1

Profit / loss

+30.8 pts

level stakes to SP

Return on stakes

7.6%

per 100 staked

Longest losing run

16

bets in a row

Deepest drawdown

42 pts

peak to trough

Winners vs market

1.18

77 expected from the prices

Running profit

Last 12 months

Bets

65

15 winners

Strike rate

23.1%

average SP 6.8/1

Profit / loss

+3.3 pts

level stakes to SP

Return on stakes

5.1%

per 100 staked

The same 65 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +11.9 pts, 18.4% return on stakes.

Warning signs

None of the 6 warning signs made a clear difference to this system's selections.

Too few selections to judge: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, hard front-end race on soft ground, failed comeback after a year off, repeat slow starts, eye-catcher last time. Last 12 months only.

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