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Systems · Profitable Betting Systems for Horseracing, ch. 8, using each trainer's record to date in place of a fixed list
The class horse of a jumps handicap, from a yard with a strong record in such races.
Following this blindly lost 3.6p of every £1 staked.
The same 173 selections at Betfair SP, after 2% commission: +43.3 pts, 25.0% return on stakes.
None of the 6 warning signs made a clear difference to this system's selections.
Too few selections to judge: slow start last time, repeat jumping errors, hard front-end race on soft ground, failed comeback after a year off, repeat slow starts, eye-catcher last time. Last 12 months only.
Warning signs known before the race, measured on this system's own selections: one that hurts one system can be harmless, or part of the edge, in another. “v market” is winners against what the prices implied. A signal is listed above when selections carrying it scored at least 0.1 lower on 25 or more bets.
No negative154 bets · 25.3% won · 1.20 v market · 18.7% at SP · 36.9% at Betfair SP
Flagged19 bets · 10.5% won · 0.59 v market · -73.0% at SP · -71.4% at Betfair SP
Slow start last time
Missed the break on its last run. The market treats it as bad luck; it is more often a habit.
With itno selections
Without173 bets · 23.7% won · 1.14 v market · 8.7% at SP · 25.0% at Betfair SP
Repeat jumping errors
A jumping mistake noted in two or more of its last three runs. One mistake is forgivable; a horse that keeps making them is overbet.
With it15 bets · 13.3% won · 0.73 v market · -65.8% at SP · -63.7% at Betfair SP
Without158 bets · 24.7% won · 1.18 v market · 15.7% at SP · 33.5% at Betfair SP
Hard front-end race on soft ground
Raced on the front end on soft or heavy ground last time, was ridden and then headed or weakened. A hard race that seems to leave a mark.
With it4 bets · 0.0% won · 0.00 v market · -100.0% at SP · -100.0% at Betfair SP
Without169 bets · 24.3% won · 1.16 v market · 11.2% at SP · 28.0% at Betfair SP
Failed comeback after a year off
Failed to finish last time on its first run for a year or more.
With itno selections
Without173 bets · 23.7% won · 1.14 v market · 8.7% at SP · 25.0% at Betfair SP
Repeat slow startscontextual
Missed the break in two or more of its last three runs.
With itno selections
Without173 bets · 23.7% won · 1.14 v market · 8.7% at SP · 25.0% at Betfair SP
Eye-catcher last timecontextual
Beaten last time with a visible excuse: finished strongly, travelled well, or met trouble and finished close up. Everyone saw it, so the price already allows for it.
With it9 bets · 11.1% won · 0.49 v market · -75.0% at SP · -73.6% at Betfair SP
Without164 bets · 24.4% won · 1.18 v market · 13.2% at SP · 30.5% at Betfair SP
| 2020 | 77 | 15.6% | -14.67 | -19.0% |
| 2021 | 202 | 24.3% | -1.25 | -0.6% |
| 2022 | 258 | 21.7% | +5.36 | 2.1% |
| 2023 | 288 | 22.9% | -40.54 | -14.1% |
| 2024 | 169 | 18.3% | -2.13 | -1.3% |
| 2025 | 205 | 21.5% | -20.04 | -9.8% |
| 2026 | 113 | 24.8% | +26.55 | 23.5% |
| Chase | 909 | 21.5% | -77.52 | -8.5% |
| Hurdle | 403 | 22.6% | +30.80 | 7.6% |