AB4: other chases aged 12 plus

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   AB4: other chases aged 12 plus KILLED amber

   because CONTROL: aged 12+ in any other handicap chase.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND lower(race_name) NOT LIKE '%veteran%' AND age >= 12

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 2,091 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.23 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return +3.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.23. Zone: all. On AB4: other chases aged 12 plus

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1361.02

   2023 to a year ago7311.23

   Last year2240.94

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   AB4: other chases aged 12 plus Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.082 on 2091 bets