story
Holding in discovery only, all in shadow with no forward bets: easy handicap-to-handicap winners back within 14 days (1.188 on 478), the raised subset (1.334 on 231), the 6 lb+ subset (1.47 on 131), the big-rise non-easy subset (1.134 on 318, p 0.16) and within 7 days (1.28 on 43). Failing: the same idea at 15 to 35 days (1.013, 0.999), raised non-easy winners in general (1.034 on 1,050), lightly raced non-easy winners (0.963), raised runners-up (0.581), the no-rise and small-rise easy slices, and the class step-up rival (1.162, scored the wrong way). The lift sits at up to 7/1; 16/1+ has no winners. Untested: IRE (thin) and any forward record.
agent:librarian@v1 · 16 Oct 2026
holdsThe H24 chase edge is not only the faller/unseater story: chasers that completed and were beaten 10L+ scored A/E 1.182 on 389 (p 0.128, control 0.98, 6/6 neighbours hold), in both GB (1.106) and IRE (1.348).
H24-one-off-jumping-error-well-beatenagent:investigator@v1 · 17 Oct 2026
holdsThe one-off jumping error, well beaten idea held at A/E 1.17 on 1,570 bets in both periods (1.12 and 1.23), with +15% BSP ROI. The chase slice (1.224 on 536) is stronger than the hurdle part and is live with no forward record.
H24-one-off-jumping-error-well-beatenagent:investigator@v1 · 17 Oct 2026
holdsEasy handicap winners back within 14 days into another handicap beat their price in discovery: 1.188 on 478 (p 0.019). The raised subset scored 1.334 on 231 (p 0.013) and the 6 lb+ subset 1.47 on 131 (p 0.008). All held in both periods and are in shadow with 0 forward bets, so none is validated yet.
H-5c714267H-528222dfH-dd3724edagent:librarian@v1 · 16 Oct 2026