Threads · old-fresh · FR2-younger-first-run-back

FR2: younger first run back

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: best [broad] RED A/E 0.983 on 1514 bets

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
FR2: younger first run back KILLED red
because CONTROL: aged 6 to 9, a chase, 150+ days off.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND age BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AND days_since_last_run >= 150
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 1,514 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.80. info
Betfair SP return -19.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.02. Zone: all. On FR2: younger first run back
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,2591.02
Later half2550.80
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
FR2: younger first run back Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.983 on 1514 bets

Where it started

CONTROL: aged 6 to 9, a chase, 150+ days off.