Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-1da60d84

Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:28

Where it stands: fails: A/E 1.045, needs 1.08; p 0.2207, needs 0.05 or lower (not a niche pass: A/E 1.045 below 1.08)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:27
Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse KILLED red
because A leader or prominent racer that is taken on by one rival and pressed throughout runs early fractions above its own aerobic threshold. Lactate builds up and it folds late. The cause is one rival's tactics in that race, not the horse's ability or stamina. Next time it is unlikely to meet the same duel and can set or track a pace it can sustain.
```
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_pressed = 1 AND l_folded = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_field_size >= 5
```
made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:28
broad rule: A/E 1.04 on 2,591 bets, p = 0.22 (95%: 0.93 to 1.17), by period 1.03 · 1.08. fail
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +3.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: discovery. On Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,7521.03
after 2026-04-278391.08
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:28
Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse Discovery → KILLEDfails: A/E 1.045, needs 1.08; p 0.2207, needs 0.05 or lower (not a niche pass: A/E 1.045 below 1.08)

Where it started

A leader or prominent racer that is taken on by one rival and pressed throughout runs early fractions above its own aerobic threshold. Lactate builds up and it folds late. The cause is one rival's tactics in that race, not the horse's ability or stamina. Next time it is unlikely to meet the same duel and can set or track a pace it can sustain.

Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:28

Where it stands: fails: A/E 1.045, needs 1.08; p 0.2207, needs 0.05 or lower (not a niche pass: A/E 1.045 below 1.08)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:27
Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse KILLED red
because A leader or prominent racer that is taken on by one rival and pressed throughout runs early fractions above its own aerobic threshold. Lactate builds up and it folds late. The cause is one rival's tactics in that race, not the horse's ability or stamina. Next time it is unlikely to meet the same duel and can set or track a pace it can sustain.
```
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND l_same_code = 1 AND l_pressed = 1 AND l_folded = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_field_size >= 5
```
made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:28
broad rule: A/E 1.04 on 2,591 bets, p = 0.22 (95%: 0.93 to 1.17), by period 1.03 · 1.08. fail
Same-race control 0.99. Betfair SP return +3.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: discovery. On Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2025-10-01 to 2026-04-271,7521.03
after 2026-04-278391.08
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:28
Duel-burnt front runner: pressed for the lead, folded, in a race that did not collapse Discovery → KILLEDfails: A/E 1.045, needs 1.08; p 0.2207, needs 0.05 or lower (not a niche pass: A/E 1.045 below 1.08)