Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-97366005
Hampered at the start (not its own slow start), beaten last time
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:22
Where it stands: fails: A/E 0.99, needs 1.08; p 0.5476, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [0.86, 1.06], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.99 against same-race control 0.998, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 0.99 below 1.08; p 0.5475723737607818 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 0.998; a period points the other wa
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:22
Hampered at the start (not its own slow start), beaten last time KILLED red
because A horse that was barged, squeezed out or hampered at the start lost position and spent energy for a reason outside itself. That is different from a slow starter, which keeps doing it (and slow starts are already a published negative). The bump is a one-off physical event, so the horse's ability is unchanged and the next run should show its normal level.
last_trouble_at_start = 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND last_position > 1
made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:22
broad rule: A/E 0.99 on 545 bets, p = 0.55 (95%: 0.74 to 1.29), by period 0.86 · 1.06. fail
Same-race control 1.00. Betfair SP return -17.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.06. Zone: discovery. On
Where it started
A horse that was barged, squeezed out or hampered at the start lost position and spent energy for a reason outside itself. That is different from a slow starter, which keeps doing it (and slow starts are already a published negative). The bump is a one-off physical event, so the horse's ability is unchanged and the next run should show its normal level.