Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-af4cfac2
Fast engine, ugly finish: top-quarter top speed but beaten eight lengths or more
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
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- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:28
Where it stands: fails: A/E 1.019, needs 1.08; p 0.3269, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [1.06, 0.98], each needs 1.0; A/E 1.019 against same-race control 0.996, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 1.019 below 1.08; does not beat the same-race control 0.996)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:27
Fast engine, ugly finish: top-quarter top speed but beaten eight lengths or more KILLED red
because Top speed is a physical capacity the horse cannot fake. A horse that hit a top speed in the top quarter of its field and was still beaten far had its result spoiled by something other than lack of ability: wrong trip, unsuitable ground, an error or a bad position. The engine is intact, so the next run regresses towards what that speed implies.
l_top_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths IS NOT NULL AND last_beaten_lengths >= 8 AND last_field_size >= 6
made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:28
broad rule: A/E 1.02 on 6,548 bets, p = 0.33 (95%: 0.94 to 1.11), by period 1.06 · 0.98. fail
Where it started
Top speed is a physical capacity the horse cannot fake. A horse that hit a top speed in the top quarter of its field and was still beaten far had its result spoiled by something other than lack of ability: wrong trip, unsuitable ground, an error or a bad position. The engine is intact, so the next run regresses towards what that speed implies.