Threads · negative · H-bfcb9669

Chase-bound winners that jumped poorly when winning are over-bet

Hypotheses: 5 (0 alive)
Depth: 1
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 3
Last activity: 16 Oct, 16:57

Where it stands: No. Poor hurdle jumpers stepping up to fences scored 0.83 on 150, no stronger than the parent's 0.78. The deficit sits entirely in Ireland (0.44 on 57), while GB was at par (1.03 on 93).

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised16 Oct, 16:45
Chase-bound winners that jumped poorly when winning are over-bet KILLED red
To answer: Do horses that won last time despite a poor Jump Index (bottom third of their field) run below their price today in a chase?
because Poor jumping costs lengths and energy at every fence, and the risk of a fall grows as the fences and the opposition get stiffer. A horse that won while jumping badly won through the engine or a weak field. Next time, after a rise or against better rivals, those lost lengths decide the race or bring a mistake. It's a physical flaw that stays hidden behind a winning result.
and the market misses it because The result shows a win, and race comments often call poor jumping 'novicey' and so forgivable. Bettors assume it will improve. The RaceiQ Jump Index shows how much ground was lost, but almost nobody prices it, so a winning horse's jumping is marked up by the result, not by the figure.
predicting negative, A/E 0.80 to 0.92 on 300+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E 0.97 or higher on 300+ bets, or no lower than horses that won last time with a Jump Index in the top third.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position = 1 AND last_race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jump_index_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jump_index_pct <= 0.33
```

Where it started

Poor jumping costs lengths and energy at every fence, and the risk of a fall grows as the fences and the opposition get stiffer. A horse that won while jumping badly won through the engine or a weak field. Next time, after a rise or against better rivals, those lost lengths decide the race or bring a mistake. It's a physical flaw that stays hidden behind a winning result.

Chase-bound winners that jumped poorly when winning are over-bet

Hypotheses

5 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 16:57

The notebook

Hypothesised16 Oct, 16:45
Chase-bound winners that jumped poorly when winning are over-bet KILLED red
To answer: Do horses that won last time despite a poor Jump Index (bottom third of their field) run below their price today in a chase?
because Poor jumping costs lengths and energy at every fence, and the risk of a fall grows as the fences and the opposition get stiffer. A horse that won while jumping badly won through the engine or a weak field. Next time, after a rise or against better rivals, those lost lengths decide the race or bring a mistake. It's a physical flaw that stays hidden behind a winning result.
and the market misses it because The result shows a win, and race comments often call poor jumping 'novicey' and so forgivable. Bettors assume it will improve. The RaceiQ Jump Index shows how much ground was lost, but almost nobody prices it, so a winning horse's jumping is marked up by the result, not by the figure.
predicting negative, A/E 0.80 to 0.92 on 300+ bets
and it is wrong if A/E 0.97 or higher on 300+ bets, or no lower than horses that won last time with a Jump Index in the top third.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND last_position = 1 AND last_race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jump_index_pct IS NOT NULL AND last_jump_index_pct <= 0.33
```