Threads · ugly-result-physical-cause · H-eb1a0840
Travelled well, then stopped on a stiff uphill finish; today on a flat-finish track
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:30
Where it stands: fails: 28 bets, needs 150; A/E 0.998, needs 1.1; p 0.5784, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.998 against same-race control 0.996, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: only 28 bets; A/E 0.998 below 1.1; p 0.5783763804363621 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 0.996)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:27
Travelled well, then stopped on a stiff uphill finish; today on a flat-finish track KILLED red
because A stiff uphill finish (Cheltenham, Sandown, Towcester, Carlisle and others) takes a large share of energy from horses whose stamina is borderline. A horse that travelled strongly to the final climb and then stopped was beaten by the hill, which is a physical feature of the track, not of its ability. On a track with a flat or easy finish the same effort carries it to the line.
last_track_stiff_finish = 1 AND track_stiff_finish = 0 AND last_travelled_well = 1 AND last_weak_finish = 1 AND last_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND distance_yards <= last_distance_yards + 110
made by scout
Tested15 Oct, 23:30
broad rule: A/E 1.00 on 28 bets, p = 0.58 (95%: 0.21 to 2.92). fail
Where it started
A stiff uphill finish (Cheltenham, Sandown, Towcester, Carlisle and others) takes a large share of energy from horses whose stamina is borderline. A horse that travelled strongly to the final climb and then stopped was beaten by the hill, which is a physical feature of the track, not of its ability. On a track with a flat or easy finish the same effort carries it to the line.