Threads · seasonal · H09-yard-targets-this-month
H09: yard targets this month
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 57168 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H09: yard targets this month KILLED red
because In earlier years the yard beat the market by 30%+ in this calendar month (30+ runners): it aims at this time of year.
tm_runs >= 30 AND tm_wins >= 1.3 * tm_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 57,168 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.98 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -5.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H09: yard targets this month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2215,1021.002023 to a year ago31,5030.98Last year10,5630.97Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H09: yard targets this month Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.985 on 57168 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
In earlier years the yard beat the market by 30%+ in this calendar month (30+ runners): it aims at this time of year.