H106: yard good at stepping up in class

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H106: yard good at stepping up in class KILLED red

   because Up in class from a yard whose earlier runners raised in class beat the market by 30%+: it does not over-face them.

   tx_up_class_runs >= 25 AND tx_up_class_wins >= 1.3 * tx_up_class_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.99 on 8,675 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.96 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -11.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H106: yard good at stepping up in class

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224,0311.03

   2023 to a year ago3,8240.96

   Last year8200.98

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H106: yard good at stepping up in class Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 8675 bets (broad RED)