Threads · planned-move · H115-horse-that-wins-fresh
H115: horse that wins fresh
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 5165 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H115: horse that wins fresh KILLED red
because First run for 150+ days by a horse that has won first time back before: it is the horse's way, not just the yard's.
days_since_last_run >= 150 AND horse_fresh_wins >= 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 5,165 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.10 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -25.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H115: horse that wins fresh
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-226770.982023 to a year ago3,1031.10Last year1,3850.90Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H115: horse that wins fresh Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 5165 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
First run for 150+ days by a horse that has won first time back before: it is the horse's way, not just the yard's.