H125: second season hurdler fresh

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H125: second season hurdler fresh KILLED amber

   because October-December handicap hurdle: a second-season hurdler (3-8 hurdle runs, aged 6 or under) on its first run for 150+ days.

   race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND hurdle_runs BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AND age <= 6 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.03 on 2,287 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.99 · 1.20. info

   Betfair SP return -9.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H125: second season hurdler fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228570.98

   2023 to a year ago9690.99

   Last year4611.20

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   has won a hurdle: A/E 1.05 on 1,015 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.97 · 1.26. info

   Betfair SP return +12.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.26. Zone: all. On H125: second season hurdler fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223661.03

   2023 to a year ago4290.97

   Last year2201.26

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.06 on 1,520 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.98 · 1.29. info

   Betfair SP return +35.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.29. Zone: all. On H125: second season hurdler fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225631.02

   2023 to a year ago6490.98

   Last year3081.29

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   from a yard good with fresh horses: A/E 1.07 on 285 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.85 · 1.69. info

   Betfair SP return +14.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.69. Zone: all. On H125: second season hurdler fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22971.07

   2023 to a year ago1340.85

   Last year54

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H125: second season hurdler fresh Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [from a yard good with fresh horses] AMBER A/E 1.067 on 285 bets (broad RED)