H129: lone traveller from a busy yard

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H129: lone traveller from a busy yard KILLED red

   because The only runner a busy yard (30+ runners in the last 30 days) sends to a meeting: a box, a lad and a day for one horse is a decision, and the market prices the horse, not the journey.

   runner_id IN (SELECT runner_id FROM (SELECT runner_id, COUNT(*) OVER (PARTITION BY trainer_id, race_date, course_id) AS n FROM lab.runs WHERE trainer_id IS NOT NULL) WHERE n = 1) AND t30_runs >= 30

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 81,402 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.00 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -3.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H129: lone traveller from a busy yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2232,0191.01

   2023 to a year ago36,2201.00

   Last year13,1630.98

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H129: lone traveller from a busy yard Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 81402 bets (broad RED)