Threads · trainer-form · H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form
H134: chase debut from a good yard in form
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (H134: chase debut from a good yard in form) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.12 on 365 bets (periods 1.17 / 1.10 / 1.06); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H134: chase debut from a good yard in form PROMISING green
because First run over fences from a yard good at it that is also winning at or above its prices this month. Form sharpened the fresh and handicap-debut moves; chase debut is the planned move not yet combined with it.
tx_chase_debut_runs >= 15 AND tx_chase_debut_wins >= 1.3 * tx_chase_debut_exp AND t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.12 on 365 bets, by period 1.17 · 1.10 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return +16.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H134: chase debut from a good yard in form
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221021.172023 to a year ago1941.10Last year691.06Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.11 on 217 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.11 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +18.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: all. On H134: chase debut from a good yard in form
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22641.122023 to a year ago1011.11Last year521.08Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.14 on 303 bets, by period 1.19 · 1.13 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +40.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.10). Zone: all. On H134: chase debut from a good yard in form
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22851.192023 to a year ago1611.13Last year571.09Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H134: chase debut from a good yard in form Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier A: strong candidate; best [14/1 or shorter] GREEN A/E 1.144 on 303 bets (broad GREEN)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form (H134: chase debut from a good yard in form) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.12 on 365 bets (periods 1.17 / 1.10 / 1.06); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H134-chase-debut-from-a-good-yard-in-form
Where it started
First run over fences from a yard good at it that is also winning at or above its prices this month. Form sharpened the fresh and handicap-debut moves; chase debut is the planned move not yet combined with it.