Threads · trainer-named · H138-mullins-other-strings-in-handicaps

H138: mullins other strings in handicaps

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.524 on 150 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H138: mullins other strings in handicaps PROMISING amber
because Willie Mullins with three or more in a handicap, and not the shortest-priced of them. The yard is so deep that the market's pecking order (Townend's mount) is a guess; the 'wrong one' wins often.
```
trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.14 on 631 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.35 · 1.14. info
Betfair SP return -25.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.35. Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222350.91
2023 to a year ago2631.35
Last year1331.14
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
hurdle: A/E 1.27 on 263 bets, by period 1.68 · 0.85 · 1.40. info
Betfair SP return -9.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.68. Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221051.68
2023 to a year ago1060.85
Last year521.40
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.11 on 226 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.21 · 1.26. info
Betfair SP return -7.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.26. Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22850.93
2023 to a year ago961.21
Last year451.26
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
in Britain: A/E 1.52 on 150 bets, by period 2.28. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2228–
2023 to a year ago942.28
Last year28–
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H138: mullins other strings in handicaps Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.524 on 150 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

Willie Mullins with three or more in a handicap, and not the shortest-priced of them. The yard is so deep that the market's pecking order (Townend's mount) is a guess; the 'wrong one' wins often.

H138: mullins other strings in handicaps

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.524 on 150 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H138: mullins other strings in handicaps PROMISING amber
because Willie Mullins with three or more in a handicap, and not the shortest-priced of them. The yard is so deep that the market's pecking order (Townend's mount) is a guess; the 'wrong one' wins often.
```
trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 3 AND stable_rank >= 2
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.14 on 631 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.35 · 1.14. info
Betfair SP return -25.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.35. Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222350.91
2023 to a year ago2631.35
Last year1331.14
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
hurdle: A/E 1.27 on 263 bets, by period 1.68 · 0.85 · 1.40. info
Betfair SP return -9.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.68. Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221051.68
2023 to a year ago1060.85
Last year521.40
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.11 on 226 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.21 · 1.26. info
Betfair SP return -7.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.26. Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22850.93
2023 to a year ago961.21
Last year451.26
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
in Britain: A/E 1.52 on 150 bets, by period 2.28. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H138: mullins other strings in handicaps
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2228–
2023 to a year ago942.28
Last year28–
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H138: mullins other strings in handicaps Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.524 on 150 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

Willie Mullins with three or more in a handicap, and not the shortest-priced of them. The yard is so deep that the market's pecking order (Townend's mount) is a guess; the 'wrong one' wins often.