H14: yard good at quick returns

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H14: yard good at quick returns KILLED amber

   because Back within 10 days from a yard whose earlier quick returners beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_quick_runs >= 15 AND tx_quick_wins >= 1.3 * tx_quick_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 7,270 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.09 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return +18.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H14: yard good at quick returns

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223,4100.98

   2023 to a year ago2,8741.09

   Last year9861.14

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   won last time: A/E 1.03 on 1,111 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.05 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return +5.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H14: yard good at quick returns

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225240.98

   2023 to a year ago4391.05

   Last year1481.14

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   beaten last time: A/E 1.05 on 6,159 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.11 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return +20.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H14: yard good at quick returns

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,8860.98

   2023 to a year ago2,4351.11

   Last year8381.14

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.03 on 5,697 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.06 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +35.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H14: yard good at quick returns

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,6980.96

   2023 to a year ago2,2271.06

   Last year7721.18

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H14: yard good at quick returns Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [beaten last time] AMBER A/E 1.051 on 6159 bets (broad RED)