H148: ballydoyle two year old second run

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H148: ballydoyle two year old second run PROMISING amber

   because Aidan O'Brien two-year-olds beaten on debut and having their second run: the yard's juveniles improve more from the first run than any others'.

   trainer LIKE 'Aidan O''Brien%' AND age = 2 AND prior_runs = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.11 on 333 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.26 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -21.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.26. Zone: all. On H148: ballydoyle two year old second run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221280.98

   2023 to a year ago1491.26

   Last year560.95

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   unplaced on debut: A/E 1.13 on 201 bets, by period 0.90 · 1.42. info

   Betfair SP return -34.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.42. Zone: all. On H148: ballydoyle two year old second run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22770.90

   2023 to a year ago871.42

   Last year37–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   in Ireland: A/E 1.15 on 312 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.32 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return -15.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.32. Zone: all. On H148: ballydoyle two year old second run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221260.99

   2023 to a year ago1371.32

   Last year491.03

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   maiden: A/E 1.10 on 296 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.26 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -16.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.26. Zone: all. On H148: ballydoyle two year old second run

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221130.97

   2023 to a year ago1321.26

   Last year510.97

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H148: ballydoyle two year old second run Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [in Ireland] AMBER A/E 1.152 on 312 bets (broad AMBER)