H155: three year old sprinters against elders early

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H155: three year old sprinters against elders early PROMISING negative

   because NEGATIVE: three-year-olds meeting older horses in sprint handicaps (6f or less) from April to June. Sprinters mature late and the scale gives little at short trips; the market likes the unexposed young one.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (4, 5, 6) AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.92 on 1,299 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.95 · 0.78. info

   Betfair SP return -14.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H155: three year old sprinters against elders early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224890.94

   2023 to a year ago5530.95

   Last year257

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   five furlongs: A/E 0.95 on 513 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.88 · 0.99. info

   Betfair SP return -4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H155: three year old sprinters against elders early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222061.01

   2023 to a year ago2120.88

   Last year95

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   first three in the betting: A/E 0.95 on 462 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.06 · 0.82. info

   Betfair SP return -16.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H155: three year old sprinters against elders early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221780.89

   2023 to a year ago2021.06

   Last year82

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H155: three year old sprinters against elders early Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.918 on 1299 bets (broad NEGATIVE)