H16: yard good at stepping up in trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H16: yard good at stepping up in trip KILLED red

   because Up 20%+ in trip from a yard whose earlier runners stepping up beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_up_trip_runs >= 20 AND tx_up_trip_wins >= 1.3 * tx_up_trip_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.98 on 10,025 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.95 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return -4.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H16: yard good at stepping up in trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224,3770.98

   2023 to a year ago4,3640.95

   Last year1,284

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H16: yard good at stepping up in trip Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 10025 bets (broad RED)