Threads · named-trainer · H17-jamie-snowden-novices

H17: jamie snowden novices

Hypotheses: 6 (2 alive)
Depth: 2
Best rung: Live
Open questions: 5
Last activity: 16 Oct, 15:19

Where it stands: No. Over jumps the lift is novice-specific: Snowden's non-novice, non-maiden hurdlers and chasers scored 0.975 on 187 (periods 1.04 and 0.84, control 1.01), so 'novice' is not just a label on a general trainer effect.

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 1.17 · 76H17: jamie snowden novicesimportgreen

Still open

Is the Snowden novice non-handicap lift spread across the price range, or carried by one short-price band the way the marathon slices were? testing
Is the lift strongest on a novice's first one or two runs over obstacles, where the form book holds the least about the horse? testing
Do Snowden's bumper runners (the same young stock before they jump) also beat their prices? testing
Should child tests in this thread be judged on the full 2020-on history (where the parent had 282 to 488 bets) instead of the October 2025 discovery window, since no sub-slice can reach 150 bets there? open
Does the live Snowden novice non-handicap system keep A/E above 1.05 at BSP in its forward record from 2026-10-13, judged as one pooled rule rather than by sub-slice? open

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H17: jamie snowden novices PROMISING green
because Jamie Snowden's novices over jumps.
```
trainer LIKE 'Jamie Snowden%' AND is_novice = 1 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.11 on 488 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.07 · 1.20. info
Betfair SP return +8.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.13). Zone: all. On

Where it started

Jamie Snowden's novices over jumps.