Threads · age-career · H178-lightly-raced-older-jumper
H178: lightly raced older jumper
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 22850 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H178: lightly raced older jumper KILLED red
because Aged eight or more with eight or fewer career runs, in a jumps handicap: fragile, so it has been unable to show what it is, and still improving; the market sees an old horse with moderate form.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND age >= 8 AND prior_runs <= 8made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 22,850 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.02 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +4.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On H178: lightly raced older jumper
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2219,4411.022023 to a year ago2,7721.02Last year6371.05Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H178: lightly raced older jumper Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 22850 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Aged eight or more with eight or fewer career runs, in a jumps handicap: fragile, so it has been unable to show what it is, and still improving; the market sees an old horse with moderate form.