Threads · age-bumper · H179-four-year-olds-in-spring-bumpers

H179: four year olds in spring bumpers

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [in Britain] NEGATIVE A/E 0.813 on 1536 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H179: four year olds in spring bumpers PROMISING negative
because Four-year-olds in bumpers from February to April: they get an allowance from older horses fixed for the whole season, and by spring they have grown into it.
```
race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.87 on 2,292 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.86 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -16.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228460.83
2023 to a year ago1,0640.86
Last year3820.97
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
debut: A/E 0.92 on 1,469 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.80 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +1.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225500.99
2023 to a year ago6840.80
Last year2351.13
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
in Britain: A/E 0.81 on 1,536 bets, by period 0.70 · 0.82 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -12.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224820.70
2023 to a year ago7590.82
Last year2950.97
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.88 on 1,227 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.90 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +17.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224500.79
2023 to a year ago5690.90
Last year2081.00
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H179: four year olds in spring bumpers Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [in Britain] NEGATIVE A/E 0.813 on 1536 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

Where it started

Four-year-olds in bumpers from February to April: they get an allowance from older horses fixed for the whole season, and by spring they have grown into it.

H179: four year olds in spring bumpers

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [in Britain] NEGATIVE A/E 0.813 on 1536 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H179: four year olds in spring bumpers PROMISING negative
because Four-year-olds in bumpers from February to April: they get an allowance from older horses fixed for the whole season, and by spring they have grown into it.
```
race_type = 'Bumper' AND age = 4 AND month IN (2, 3, 4)
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.87 on 2,292 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.86 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -16.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228460.83
2023 to a year ago1,0640.86
Last year3820.97
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
debut: A/E 0.92 on 1,469 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.80 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +1.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225500.99
2023 to a year ago6840.80
Last year2351.13
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
in Britain: A/E 0.81 on 1,536 bets, by period 0.70 · 0.82 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -12.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224820.70
2023 to a year ago7590.82
Last year2950.97
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.88 on 1,227 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.90 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +17.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H179: four year olds in spring bumpers
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224500.79
2023 to a year ago5690.90
Last year2081.00
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H179: four year olds in spring bumpers Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [in Britain] NEGATIVE A/E 0.813 on 1536 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

Where it started

Four-year-olds in bumpers from February to April: they get an allowance from older horses fixed for the whole season, and by spring they have grown into it.