Threads · track-ground · H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground
H195: flat speed over hurdles on winter good ground
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
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- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H195-flat-speed-over-hurdles-on-winter-good-ground (H195: flat speed over hurdles on winter good ground) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.16 on 478 bets (periods 1.27 / 1.19 / 0.76); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H195: flat speed over hurdles on winter good ground PROMISING green
because A hurdler with three or more Flat runs, over 2m1f or less, on good or faster ground from December to February. Good winter ground is rare, turns a hurdle into a speed test, and the jumps-bred rivals earned their form in the mud.
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND flat_runs >= 3 AND distance_yards <= 3740made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.16 on 478 bets, by period 1.27 · 1.19 · 0.76. info
Betfair SP return -64.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.76 to 1.27. Zone: all. On
Where it started
A hurdler with three or more Flat runs, over 2m1f or less, on good or faster ground from December to February. Good winter ground is rare, turns a hurdle into a speed test, and the jumps-bred rivals earned their form in the mud.