Threads · race-betting · H199-favourite-at-a-big-price-in-a-big-handicap
H199: favourite at a big price in a big handicap
- Hypotheses
- 12 (4 alive)
- Depth
- 4
- Best rung
- Live
- Open questions
- 15
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 16:02
Where it stands: fails: A/E 0.981, needs 1.08; p 0.5685, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [1.18, 0.71], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.981 against same-race control 1.03, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 0.981 below 1.08; p 0.568478005324285 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 1.03; a period points the other wa
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H199: favourite at a big price in a big handicap PROMISING green
because The favourite at 5/1 or bigger in a handicap of 14+ runners. Prices are compared with same-priced horses, most of which are fourth or fifth choice in smaller races; being the one the whole market settled on should be worth more than the price says.
is_handicap = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND sp_decimal >= 6 AND field_size >= 14
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.14 on 1,086 bets.
Where it started
The favourite at 5/1 or bigger in a handicap of 14+ runners. Prices are compared with same-priced horses, most of which are fourth or fifth choice in smaller races; being the one the whole market settled on should be worth more than the price says.