Threads · race-betting · H203-favourite-in-a-two-or-three-runner-race
H203: favourite in a two or three runner race
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 1346 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H203: favourite in a two or three runner race KILLED red
because The favourite in a race of two or three runners. Two-sided: tiny fields are tactical and the best horse can be out-manoeuvred, or there is simply nothing to beat it.
field_size <= 3 AND is_favourite = 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 1,346 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.05 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return -7.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H203: favourite in a two or three runner race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-226120.972023 to a year ago4711.05Last year2630.96Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H203: favourite in a two or three runner race Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 1346 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
The favourite in a race of two or three runners. Two-sided: tiny fields are tactical and the best horse can be out-manoeuvred, or there is simply nothing to beat it.