Threads · race-ground · H204-favourite-on-heavy-ground
H204: favourite on heavy ground
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.99 on 4581 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H204: favourite on heavy ground KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: the favourite on heavy ground. Most form is earned on better ground, heavy turns it over, and the market still puts the form horse in front.
going_group = 'heavy' AND is_favourite = 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 4,581 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.02 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -13.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H204: favourite on heavy ground
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,7260.992023 to a year ago2,0601.02Last year7950.90Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H204: favourite on heavy ground Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.99 on 4581 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: the favourite on heavy ground. Most form is earned on better ground, heavy turns it over, and the market still puts the form horse in front.