Threads · race-weights · H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap

H207: top weight in a wide handicap

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 16 Oct, 10:10

Where it stands: H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (H207: top weight in a wide handicap) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.91 on 2381 bets (periods 0.82 / 1.06 / 0.91).

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H207: top weight in a wide handicap KILLED red
because Top weight where the weights span two stone or more: a class horse dropped among much lesser ones. Class is worth more than pounds, and the market shies from the burden.
```
is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.91 on 2,381 bets, by period 0.82 · 1.06 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return -0.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-229280.82
2023 to a year ago5711.06
Last year8820.91
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.88 on 334 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.92 · 0.74. info
Betfair SP return -24.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.74 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22971.08
2023 to a year ago770.92
Last year1600.74
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.91 on 2,047 bets, by period 0.78 · 1.09 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return +4.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.78 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228310.78
2023 to a year ago4941.09
Last year7220.96
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.90 on 1,844 bets, by period 0.80 · 1.07 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -0.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227220.80
2023 to a year ago4391.07
Last year6830.90
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
class 5 or 6: A/E 0.91 on 871 bets, by period 0.79 · 1.00 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +13.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224340.79
2023 to a year ago1501.00
Last year2871.02
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H207: top weight in a wide handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 0.914 on 2047 bets (broad RED)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (H207: top weight in a wide handicap) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.91 on 2381 bets (periods 0.82 / 1.06 / 0.91).
surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap

Where it started

Top weight where the weights span two stone or more: a class horse dropped among much lesser ones. Class is worth more than pounds, and the market shies from the burden.

H207: top weight in a wide handicap

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 10:10

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H207: top weight in a wide handicap KILLED red
because Top weight where the weights span two stone or more: a class horse dropped among much lesser ones. Class is worth more than pounds, and the market shies from the burden.
```
is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.91 on 2,381 bets, by period 0.82 · 1.06 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return -0.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-229280.82
2023 to a year ago5711.06
Last year8820.91
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.88 on 334 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.92 · 0.74. info
Betfair SP return -24.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.74 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22971.08
2023 to a year ago770.92
Last year1600.74
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.91 on 2,047 bets, by period 0.78 · 1.09 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return +4.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.78 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228310.78
2023 to a year ago4941.09
Last year7220.96
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.90 on 1,844 bets, by period 0.80 · 1.07 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -0.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227220.80
2023 to a year ago4391.07
Last year6830.90
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
class 5 or 6: A/E 0.91 on 871 bets, by period 0.79 · 1.00 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +13.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H207: top weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224340.79
2023 to a year ago1501.00
Last year2871.02
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H207: top weight in a wide handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 0.914 on 2047 bets (broad RED)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (H207: top weight in a wide handicap) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.91 on 2381 bets (periods 0.82 / 1.06 / 0.91).
surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H207-top-weight-in-a-wide-handicap

Where it started

Top weight where the weights span two stone or more: a class horse dropped among much lesser ones. Class is worth more than pounds, and the market shies from the burden.