H209: top weight in a claimer

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H209: top weight in a claimer KILLED red

   because Top weight in a claiming race. In a claimer the trainer chooses the weight by naming the price he will lose the horse for, so the top weight is the one its own yard values most.

   is_claiming = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.91 on 800 bets, by period 0.86 · 0.93 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return +34.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H209: top weight in a claimer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223930.86

   2023 to a year ago3180.93

   Last year891.10

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.92 on 589 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.93 · 1.07. info

   Betfair SP return +16.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H209: top weight in a claimer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223000.88

   2023 to a year ago2310.93

   Last year581.07

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   not the favourite: A/E 0.88 on 649 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.80 · 1.51. info

   Betfair SP return +50.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.51. Zone: all. On H209: top weight in a claimer

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223180.82

   2023 to a year ago2570.80

   Last year741.51

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H209: top weight in a claimer Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 0.916 on 589 bets (broad RED)

6. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer (H209: top weight in a claimer) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.91 on 800 bets (periods 0.86 / 0.93 / 1.10).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H209-top-weight-in-a-claimer