Threads · race-stable · H213-four-or-more-from-one-yard
H213: four or more from one yard
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 2576 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H213: four or more from one yard KILLED red
because A yard with four or more runners in one handicap: it has aimed its string at this race, and the market spreads the yard's chance across them unevenly by jockey. (Named-yard version: Mullins other strings were 1.20 but unstable.)
is_handicap = 1 AND n_stable >= 4
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 2,576 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.90 · 0.89. info
Betfair SP return +71.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H213: four or more from one yard
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-229821.112023 to a year ago1,1690.90Last year4250.89Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H213: four or more from one yard Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.977 on 2576 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A yard with four or more runners in one handicap: it has aimed its string at this race, and the market spreads the yard's chance across them unevenly by jockey. (Named-yard version: Mullins other strings were 1.20 but unstable.)