Threads · season-jumps · H223-winter-horse-reappearing-in-the-summer
H223: winter horse reappearing in the summer
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.018 on 4018 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H223: winter horse reappearing in the summer KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: jumps from June to August, first run for 120+ days. A jumper put away in the winter and brought out on summer ground is neither fit nor a summer horse, and its winter form reads better than the summer regulars'.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (6, 7, 8) AND days_since_last_run >= 120made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 4,018 bets, by period 1.12 · 0.96 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -18.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H223: winter horse reappearing in the summer
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,2091.122023 to a year ago2,2690.96Last year540Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H223: winter horse reappearing in the summer Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.018 on 4018 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: jumps from June to August, first run for 120+ days. A jumper put away in the winter and brought out on summer ground is neither fit nor a summer horse, and its winter form reads better than the summer regulars'.