H227: class veteran in a hunter chase

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H227: class veteran in a hunter chase KILLED red

   because Hunter chases: aged ten or more with three or more chase wins under Rules. A former handicapper against point-to-pointers; class lasts longer than speed and these races are run at a hunter's pace.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND race_name LIKE '%Hunter%' AND age >= 10 AND chase_wins >= 3

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 260 bets, by period 0.94 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +114.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H227: class veteran in a hunter chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2213–

   2023 to a year ago1660.94

   Last year811.02

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.92 on 180 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +37.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H227: class veteran in a hunter chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2211–

   2023 to a year ago1190.94

   Last year500.92

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   ran in the last 60 days: A/E 0.98 on 160 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return -8.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H227: class veteran in a hunter chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2211–

   2023 to a year ago1031.01

   Last year460.93

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H227: class veteran in a hunter chase Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [ran in the last 60 days] RED A/E 0.976 on 160 bets (broad RED)