H23: hurdle prep into a chase

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H23: hurdle prep into a chase PROMISING green

   because Established chaser (2+ chases) whose last run, within 45 days, was over hurdles: hidden fitness.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Hurdle' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND chase_runs >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.14 on 3,708 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.12 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +14.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H23: hurdle prep into a chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,3811.13

   2023 to a year ago1,6291.12

   Last year6981.18

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   open handicap chase: A/E 1.18 on 3,013 bets, by period 1.20 · 1.17 · 1.19. info

   Betfair SP return +17.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On H23: hurdle prep into a chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,0941.20

   2023 to a year ago1,3241.17

   Last year5951.19

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   open handicap, unplaced over hurdles, 14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.26 on 1,412 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.36 · 1.28. info

   Betfair SP return +42.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.24). Zone: all. On H23: hurdle prep into a chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224871.12

   2023 to a year ago6631.36

   Last year2621.28

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   ...and in Britain: A/E 1.31 on 838 bets, by period 1.24 · 1.41 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +30.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.23). Zone: all. On H23: hurdle prep into a chase

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222931.24

   2023 to a year ago4061.41

   Last year1391.18

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H23: hurdle prep into a chase Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier A: strong candidate; best [...and in Britain] GREEN A/E 1.312 on 838 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase (H23: hurdle prep into a chase) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.14 on 3708 bets (periods 1.13 / 1.12 / 1.18); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H23-hurdle-prep-into-a-chase