Threads · placement · H25-quick-return-after-an-easy-race
H25: quick return after an easy race
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 18714 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H25: quick return after an easy race KILLED red
because Unplaced last time and back within 7 days: the trainer thinks the first run took nothing out of it.
days_since_last_run <= 7 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 18,714 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.01 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -15.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H25: quick return after an easy race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-228,7470.962023 to a year ago7,3101.01Last year2,6571.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H25: quick return after an easy race Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 18714 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Unplaced last time and back within 7 days: the trainer thinks the first run took nothing out of it.