Threads · fitness · H28-second-run-back
H28: second run back
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.989 on 40225 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H28: second run back KILLED red
because Second run after 150+ days off, within 35 days of the first: the first run put it right.
days_since_last_run <= 35 AND days_before_last >= 150
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 40,225 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.99 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -8.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H28: second run back
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2213,7340.992023 to a year ago19,2010.99Last year7,2900.98Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H28: second run back Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.989 on 40225 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Second run after 150+ days off, within 35 days of the first: the first run put it right.