Threads · story · H34-won-easily-last-time

H34: won easily last time

Hypotheses: 18 (7 alive)
Depth: 5
Best rung: Live
Open questions: 4
Last activity: 16 Oct, 16:39

Where it stands: No. Big-rise quick-return winners stepping up 15%+ in trip scored 0.67 on 50 (p 0.879, CI 0.25 to 1.47), and only 5 of them were 16/1+. So a trip step-up cannot explain the 0-from-32 longshot failures.

The tree

PROMISING · 0H34: won easily last timeimportgreen
- LIVESystem: Easy winner, out again within a fortnightimport
  - KILLEDA/E 1.00 · 2015Rival: quick-returning last-time winners beat their price whether or not they won easilyrival-explanationredreached discovery
  - SHADOWA/E 1.19 · 478Test-mechanism: easy-winner quick-return lift lives in handicap-to-handicap runstest-mechanismgreen
    - KILLED

Still open

Is the 0 winners from 17 at 16/1 or bigger in the raised easy-winner rule a structural cut, meaning the market correctly marks those runners as a class or trip step-up, or is it noise? testing
Does the market's over-fade of big handicap rises persist when the horse returns 15 to 35 days after the win, or is it tied to a quick turnout? testing
Is the market's over-fade about the pounds raised, so it also shows on horses raised 6 lb or more after finishing second, without a win? testing
Do big-rise quick returners at 16/1 or bigger share a visible obstacle (a class step-up, a trip change, a code switch) that explains why they fail? testing

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H34: won easily last time PROMISING green
because Won with something in hand last time: the margin undersells it and the handicapper can only react to the margin.
```
last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 2,374 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +2.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On

Where it started

Won with something in hand last time: the margin undersells it and the handicapper can only react to the margin.

H34: won easily last time

Hypotheses

18 (7 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Live

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 16:39

The tree

PROMISING · 0H34: won easily last timeimportgreen
- LIVESystem: Easy winner, out again within a fortnightimport
  - KILLEDA/E 1.00 · 2015Rival: quick-returning last-time winners beat their price whether or not they won easilyrival-explanationredreached discovery
  - SHADOWA/E 1.19 · 478Test-mechanism: easy-winner quick-return lift lives in handicap-to-handicap runstest-mechanismgreen
    - KILLED

Still open

Is the 0 winners from 17 at 16/1 or bigger in the raised easy-winner rule a structural cut, meaning the market correctly marks those runners as a class or trip step-up, or is it noise? testing
Does the market's over-fade of big handicap rises persist when the horse returns 15 to 35 days after the win, or is it tied to a quick turnout? testing
Is the market's over-fade about the pounds raised, so it also shows on horses raised 6 lb or more after finishing second, without a win? testing
Do big-rise quick returners at 16/1 or bigger share a visible obstacle (a class step-up, a trip change, a code switch) that explains why they fail? testing

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H34: won easily last time PROMISING green
because Won with something in hand last time: the margin undersells it and the handicapper can only react to the margin.
```
last_position = 1 AND last_won_easily = 1
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 2,374 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +2.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On

Where it started

Won with something in hand last time: the margin undersells it and the handicapper can only react to the margin.