Threads · market · H38-backed-after-being-unfancied
H38: backed after being unfancied
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.029 on 19887 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H38: backed after being unfancied KILLED red
because 20/1 or bigger last time, 5/1 or shorter today: somebody knows it is a different horse now.
last_sp_decimal >= 21 AND sp_decimal <= 6
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 19,887 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.02 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +0.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On H38: backed after being unfancied
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-227,6201.052023 to a year ago8,7881.02Last year3,4791.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H38: backed after being unfancied Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.029 on 19887 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
20/1 or bigger last time, 5/1 or shorter today: somebody knows it is a different horse now.