Threads · jockey · H43-jockey-upgrade
H43: jockey upgrade
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 21301 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H43: jockey upgrade KILLED red
because A jockey winning 18%+ of rides takes over from a different rider: the yard wants it ridden today.
jockey_runs >= 100 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 18 AND last_jockey_id IS NOT NULL AND last_jockey_id != jockey_id
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 21,301 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.05 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return +1.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H43: jockey upgrade
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-228,0940.992023 to a year ago9,9671.05Last year3,2401.02Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H43: jockey upgrade Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 21301 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A jockey winning 18%+ of rides takes over from a different rider: the yard wants it ridden today.