Threads · age · H45-young-horses-in-novice-chases

H45: young horses in novice chases

Hypotheses: 5 (2 alive)
Depth: 1
Best rung: Live
Open questions: 4
Last activity: 16 Oct, 11:06

Where it stands: fails: A/E 0.974, needs 1.05; p 0.6117, needs 0.05 or lower; periods [1.0, 0.88], each needs 1.0; A/E 0.974 against same-race control 1.16, needs 0.03 above (not a niche pass: A/E 0.974 below 1.05; p 0.6116703107013322 above 0.5; does not beat the same-race control 1.16; a period points the other wa

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 0.96 · 204H45: young horses in novice chasesimportgreen

Still open

Why does the lab's discovery measurement (A/E 0.963 on 204) disagree with the imported GREEN (1.095 on 435)? Is it the field-size-corrected yardstick, the window, or the edge fading? testing
Is the effect stronger at age 4 than at age 5, as the mechanism predicts, since sending a four-year-old over fences is the rarer and more deliberate choice? open
Is the young-novice-chaser lift concentrated on chase debuts (chase_runs = 0), where only the yard knows how well the horse jumps? testing
Do all runners in non-handicap novice chases beat the field-size-corrected yardstick, so that H45's imported lift is a property of the race type rather than of age? testing

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H45: young horses in novice chases PROMISING green
because Four- and five-year-olds in non-handicap novice chases: precocious types sent chasing young for a reason.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_novice = 1 AND is_handicap = 0 AND age <= 5
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.09 on 435 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.27 · 1.15. info

Where it started

Four- and five-year-olds in non-handicap novice chases: precocious types sent chasing young for a reason.

H45: young horses in novice chases

Hypotheses

5 (2 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Live

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 11:06

The tree

PROMISINGA/E 0.96 · 204H45: young horses in novice chasesimportgreen

Still open

Why does the lab's discovery measurement (A/E 0.963 on 204) disagree with the imported GREEN (1.095 on 435)? Is it the field-size-corrected yardstick, the window, or the edge fading? testing
Is the effect stronger at age 4 than at age 5, as the mechanism predicts, since sending a four-year-old over fences is the rarer and more deliberate choice? open
Is the young-novice-chaser lift concentrated on chase debuts (chase_runs = 0), where only the yard knows how well the horse jumps? testing
Do all runners in non-handicap novice chases beat the field-size-corrected yardstick, so that H45's imported lift is a property of the race type rather than of age? testing

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H45: young horses in novice chases PROMISING green
because Four- and five-year-olds in non-handicap novice chases: precocious types sent chasing young for a reason.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND is_novice = 1 AND is_handicap = 0 AND age <= 5
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.09 on 435 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.27 · 1.15. info

Where it started

Four- and five-year-olds in non-handicap novice chases: precocious types sent chasing young for a reason.