H50: wide trip by track geometry

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H50: wide trip by track geometry PROMISING green

   because The wide-trip system: a wide run should cost more at a sharp, turning track than at a galloping one.

   last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.20 on 1,288 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.27. info

   Betfair SP return +41.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.16). Zone: all. On H50: wide trip by track geometry

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6031.11

   Later half6851.27

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run at a sharp track: A/E 1.13 on 668 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return +61.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: all. On H50: wide trip by track geometry

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3461.11

   Later half3221.15

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run at a galloping track: A/E 1.23 on 294 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.38. info

   Betfair SP return +3.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.38. Zone: all. On H50: wide trip by track geometry

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half970.92

   Later half1971.38

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   no slow start, not a flattered closer: A/E 1.25 on 1,114 bets, by period 1.14 · 1.36. info

   Betfair SP return +50.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.22). Zone: all. On H50: wide trip by track geometry

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5331.14

   Later half5811.36

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat, 14/1 or shorter, no slow start: A/E 1.22 on 832 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.29. info

   Betfair SP return +25.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.16). Zone: all. On H50: wide trip by track geometry

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3801.13

   Later half4521.29

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H50: wide trip by track geometry Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier A: strong candidate; best [no slow start, not a flattered closer] GREEN A/E 1.249 on 1114 bets (broad GREEN)

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry (H50: wide trip by track geometry) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.20 on 1288 bets (periods 1.11 / 1.27); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H50-wide-trip-by-track-geometry