H54: gordon elliott in november

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H54: gordon elliott in november PROMISING amber

   because Gordon Elliott's jumpers in November, the month his string comes to hand.

   trainer LIKE 'Gordon Elliott%' AND month = 11 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.12 on 849 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.20 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return -19.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.15). Zone: all. On H54: gordon elliott in november

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224081.05

   2023 to a year ago2951.20

   Last year1461.11

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   first run for 150+ days: A/E 1.23 on 212 bets, by period 1.33 · 1.30 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -33.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.84 to 1.33. Zone: all. On H54: gordon elliott in november

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22711.33

   2023 to a year ago961.30

   Last year450.84

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   second run back: A/E 1.30 on 138 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.28. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.15). Zone: all. On H54: gordon elliott in november

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22501.13

   2023 to a year ago601.28

   Last year28–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   novice or maiden: A/E 1.10 on 329 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.20 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return -19.3%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.20. Zone: all. On H54: gordon elliott in november

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221621.00

   2023 to a year ago1101.20

   Last year571.18

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.09 on 306 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.29 · 1.21. info

   Betfair SP return -6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.29. Zone: all. On H54: gordon elliott in november

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221470.89

   2023 to a year ago1111.29

   Last year481.21

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H54: gordon elliott in november Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [second run back] AMBER A/E 1.302 on 138 bets (broad AMBER)