Threads · habit · H59-second-twice-running
H59: second twice running
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 11724 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H59: second twice running KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: second on both of its last two runs. Backed as due a win; some horses find one too good.
last_position = 2 AND position_2_back = 2
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 11,724 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.97 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -5.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H59: second twice running
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224,5350.992023 to a year ago5,1990.97Last year1,9900.97Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H59: second twice running Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 11724 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: second on both of its last two runs. Backed as due a win; some horses find one too good.