H62: course likes course winner

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H62: course likes course winner PROMISING negative

   because Previous course winner at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Quirky tracks where knowing the place is worth more than the market allows.

   cp_course_winner_runs >= 60 AND cp_course_winner_wins >= 1.25 * cp_course_winner_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.93 on 2,185 bets, by period 0.92 · 0.92 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +9.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H62: course likes course winner

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,4830.92

   2023 to a year ago6250.92

   Last year771.05

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 0.92 on 1,423 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.93 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +9.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H62: course likes course winner

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228250.90

   2023 to a year ago5210.93

   Last year771.05

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.93 on 1,212 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.95 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +9.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H62: course likes course winner

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226090.91

   2023 to a year ago5260.95

   Last year771.05

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.92 on 962 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.72. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H62: course likes course winner

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228690.94

   2023 to a year ago930.72

   Last year0–

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H62: course likes course winner Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [Flat] NEGATIVE A/E 0.921 on 962 bets (broad RED)