H65: course likes top weight

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H65: course likes top weight PROMISING negative

   because Top weight in a handicap at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks where class tells and weight stops them less.

   cp_top_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_top_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_top_weight_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.89 on 1,975 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.94 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -14.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H65: course likes top weight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,0830.87

   2023 to a year ago7020.94

   Last year1900.84

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 0.87 on 1,205 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.90 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -14.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H65: course likes top weight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224120.84

   2023 to a year ago6030.90

   Last year1900.84

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.86 on 1,079 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.88 · 0.45. info

   Betfair SP return -68.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H65: course likes top weight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225260.88

   2023 to a year ago4830.88

   Last year700.45

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.93 on 896 bets, by period 0.86 · 1.07 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +17.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H65: course likes top weight

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225570.86

   2023 to a year ago2191.07

   Last year1201.04

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H65: course likes top weight Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.858 on 1079 bets (broad NEGATIVE)