H69: course likes led last

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H69: course likes led last KILLED red

   because Led last time out at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that favour front-runners (last year only: needs the remarks).

   cp_led_last_runs >= 60 AND cp_led_last_wins >= 1.25 * cp_led_last_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 375 bets, by period 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -3.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H69: course likes led last

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year3750.95

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.86 on 121 bets, by period 0.86. info

   Betfair SP return +7.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H69: course likes led last

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year1210.86

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.01 on 251 bets, by period 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return -8.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H69: course likes led last

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year2511.01

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   30+ earlier runners is enough: A/E 0.95 on 375 bets, by period 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -3.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H69: course likes led last

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year3750.95

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H69: course likes led last Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [Flat] RED A/E 1.01 on 251 bets (broad RED)