H71: course likes draw low

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H71: course likes draw low KILLED red

   because Drawn in the low third (Flat, 8+ runners) at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. A real draw bias should persist.

   cp_draw_low_runs >= 60 AND cp_draw_low_wins >= 1.25 * cp_draw_low_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.03 on 2,412 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.05. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On H71: course likes draw low

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,2421.02

   2023 to a year ago1441.05

   Last year26–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H71: course likes draw low Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.027 on 2412 bets (broad RED)