H72: course likes draw high

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H72: course likes draw high KILLED red

   because Drawn in the high third (Flat, 8+ runners) at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. A real draw bias should persist.

   cp_draw_high_runs >= 60 AND cp_draw_high_wins >= 1.25 * cp_draw_high_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 3,202 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.09. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H72: course likes draw high

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,3771.03

   2023 to a year ago8071.09

   Last year18–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 1.04 on 2,667 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.09. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H72: course likes draw high

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,8421.03

   2023 to a year ago8071.09

   Last year18–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps on 0 bets. info

   Zone: all. On H72: course likes draw high

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.04 on 3,202 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.09. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H72: course likes draw high

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,3771.03

   2023 to a year ago8071.09

   Last year18–

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H72: course likes draw high Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.042 on 3202 bets (broad RED)